Meteorologists from the National Weather Service of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the United States are predicting higher than normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean. The higher than average ocean temperatures increase the risk ofan above-normal hurricane season by approximately 60%, according to NOAA. This is terrifying. The agency is predicting between 13 to 19 storms in total, with winds above 60 km/h. Of these, 6 to 10 could become hurricanes, with winds above 110 km/h, and with 4 to 5 of these category 3, 4 or 5, with winds of 180 km/h or higher. NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.

“NOAA and the National Weather Service – explains American Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick – are using the most advanced weather models and cutting-edge hurricane tracking systems to provide Americans with real-time storm forecasts and warnings.

 With these models and forecasting tools, we have never been more prepared for hurricane season.”  It is well known, however, that the current government wants to lay off the emplyees and close this organisation of such global relevance.

“As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby, – notes Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm – the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities”.  Our organisation is critical for the delivery of early and accurate forecasts and warnings, and provides the scientific expertise needed to save lives and property. The season is expected to be above normal, due to a confluence of factors tending to favour tropical storm formation.”

The high activity era continues in the Atlantic Basin, featuring high-heat content in the ocean and reduced trade winds.  The higher-heat content provides more energy to fuel storm development, while weaker winds allow the storms to develop without disruption; this hurricane season also features the potential for a northward shift of the West African monsoon, producing tropical waves that seed some of the strongest and most long-lived storms.

“In my 30 years at the National Weather Service – says  Ken Graham, NOAA’s National Weather Service Director – we’ve never had more advanced models and warning systems in place to monitor the weather. This outlook is a call to action:  be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you’re ready before a storm threatens.”

NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast.  NOAA also issued seasonal hurricane outlooks for the eastern Pacific and central Pacific hurricane basins. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update the 2025 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, prior to the historical peak of the season. Fingers crossed. I say that for everyone, not just myself: I have booked holidays in that area and would love to be lying in thesun under a blue sky, not running away from flying palm trees.

Photo source: NOAA

By Paolo Ponga